Monday, December 20, 2010

Trend Reversal

When a trend bar tries to close a medium sized gap (larger than one recent bar but smaller than a recent day), there is a good chance the opening trend will reverse sometime in the first hour. This is because buyers would not buy above a small gap, expecting it to close. When it does close, its possible they will move in.

Today's b5 setup a 2 legged pullback after a trend bar and gave a short entry near the bottom of the flag. Conservative traders should pass this since we could see a fBO of the range and have the market move up. However, with the close of yesterday within range in the first hour, there was a good chance it would work. The first reversal at b21 was possibly a W4,19,21. A 2 or 3 tick doji after a strong close usually works like a W1P and is generally good for a swing trade.

A first channel breakout at b31 was bought, but the buyers could not scalp out nor were they stopped out, making b38 an A2 long. This was the second swingable entry today.

A DP at b54 broke above a poor signal bar and overshot a trendchannel line breaking above the high of the day. This breakout failed in a W, giving a W1P and A2 on the way down.

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