Thursday, December 16, 2010

The expanding triangle open

When the market opens near yesterday's close with a marginal bar such as today's doji, the market will try to break out both sides until it encounters a hard reversal. Todays open was a tick away from yesterday and it was very likely the breakout of the doji would fail and is tradeable if it gives a decent entry. The ii bar on b4 with a shaved close was a good entry.

The news related down up reversal was 4 points tall and this means there is some risk that it will turn into a trading range. Two legs up provided an A2 short at b11. However, the entry bar b10 closed strong, so there was some chance they would buy its low (purple line). A shallower pullback at b17 was an A2 long and very good setup. The market shot up +4 and turned into a TTR. b30 broke above the TTR and gave a BP at b36 ii.

Since there was no overshoot, b42 would be a poor short for W. b53 gave a double top but it was a marginal short since there was no demonstration of bear strength. A Double top pullback (DP) ii short at b56 was also marginal but could be taken with an option to reverse above the DT. b63 was a marginal G and b66 was a marginal G2 entry since they forced a buy above and mid flag.

The down up bars at b72 after three pushes down was a good signal. Technically, this was the first bull bar below the ema that triggered a long position.

Price took out the high of day (HOD) and retraced all of yesterday's down move.

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