Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The openers: 1W

Its a common suggestion to trade with the trend whenever possible and while its a good idea, often it takes a while for a trend to be obvious. Often the big moves occur early in the day when the trend is indeterminate. Some days such as today, the big move may lead to a sustained trend. Once a trend is obvious, say b40 or so, its a simple matter of waiting for a deep pullback to the trendline (around b57) and then finding the right place to enter.

On most days however, it pays to be on the right side of big moves early in the day, since that may be your only opportunity to take a sizable profit.

Even the open has some repeat patterns that signify potential large moves and studying them enables you to be on the right side of a large move.

The overall idea is that the first bar or the first few bars represent either a trend or a trading range and the way price moves beyond it will enable you to determine the pivotal move of the day.

Openers fall into various classes based on how the first few bars relate to each other. A large first bar usually signifies high volatility and potentially a large day.

The simplest opener is 1W (first wedge of the day). This represents a 3 push move in one direction that turns into a reversal. Sometimes the 1W can be a 3 push pullback after a large move in one direction.

1W usually results in a sustained move for the rest of the day (or at least the next couple of hours). 1W that are also WfBO adds strength to the pattern and are usually good for at least the other end of the range.

In general, its beneficial to take the higher low (b21) rather than take a bad bar (b15). When the move takes out the other end of the W in one leg (did not happen today), its usually a sign that the price will move a measured move in the same direction (which did occur).

ProTip: Any weak move from the open could 1W and turn around.


  1. Hi Cad,
    do you take the deep PB as well, if it takes out b41L? Two HLs?
    3-14 contract did so, but not the contract you traded.
    b51 was MM b1.

    1. Technically, the trend terminated at b52 but resumed b63. However, I have not yet covered trend breaks and resumptions in the blog yet, and this article is about 1W so I used b57 for simplicity.

  2. TY, b63 fL2 is great trade. Gave 50t into the C.
    Can one view b57 mDB as a 3 push variant and just B with bar stop? Also DB with earlier SL.
    I saw the day as a strong bull channel, that's why I asked about taking out two HLs.

  3. I really, really like trading directional. While much has been written on its influence on contemporary living, it is impossible to overestimate its impact on modern thought. Since it was first compared to antidisestablishmentarianism much has been said concerning trading directional by those most reliant on technology, who are likely to form a major stronghold in the inevitable battle for hearts and minds