Monday, June 13, 2011

Failed Wedges

True failed Wedges are rare. Normally wedges that fail do so because they do not represent extreme behavior. Today, we had a W5,10,20 that did overshoot the trend channel line strongly and was expected to give two legs up. But after only a single leg to b24, it took out the low of the wedge (b29) thus giving a failed Wedge. Failed W are expected to go to a measured move of the wedge as we did at b44.

If the move to b24 was 2 legged, its no longer a failed wedge, but still a sell signal since a shallow 2 legged move after a wedge is a continuation signal. It just wouldn't be a measured move to the size of the wedge.

One of the reasons to enter after a pullback after the wedge reversal (W1P) rather than the W itself is to avoid a misread W or a failed W such as today. Its a good idea to enter a small position on a strong W if there is a strong signal bar such as b44. This is because there is a chance that the W could not pullback until much later (often above the ema).

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