Friday, February 4, 2011

First Channel breakouts

First channel breakouts are a high probability entry if you can correctly identify them. I usually end up not taking them, because I'm already in a position due to a prior entry and have just exited my scalp portion a few ticks ago. It does not make sense to re-enter unless the price action has shifted significantly.

The correct way to enter a first channel breakout long is if the price triggers above the bar that broke the micro-trendline. Therefore for the channel from b34 to b42, since the bar b43 dipped below the prior bar, an entry above it is a high probability entry.

On the other hand for the channel from b20 to b25, the channel was broken by b27, but a long above it was not triggered. A second bar that dips below the prior bar is more likely to be a 2 or 3 legged pullback or barb wire and you should not be buying above b28.

The move eventually gave two failed extremely poor sell signals, a doji reversal at b29 and a 1t ii short at b32 both of which failed and turned into an A2 long. Although technically the b32 ii is a possible long signal and would make it an A2, its such a poor signal that very few traders took it. If you did take a poor signal, you need a money stop of 8 ticks (which was not hit).


  1. I am continually awed by your trading Cad. Even more by the bad trades you avoid taking than by the good trades you took. What did you see that caused you to avoid entering above b18 and instead used b20 as your trigger bar? Was it the 3t tail above the bull body of b18?

  2. @RF, yes the rather large tail at the bottom and the fact that b18 was an inside bar variant.