The first two legged pullback of the day

If you could only trade one trade a day, the first two legged pullback is the best candidate. You should take out at least 1 contract at +1 and let the rest run. Usually, if the day is going to be a trend day, this is your best chance at leaving a stop at breakeven and getting most of the move. If your breakeven stop is hit, there is a good chance this would not be a big trend day.

A second option is to move the stop after every new high or low. So for example, after b34, you could  move your stop above b28, then move it above b37 when b38 makes a new low and so on. If you took some more off at a larger target, say +4, you could then move the stop only after 2 legged moves, so say above b56 after b64 made a new low.

On days that do not have a two legged pullback, well you dont need to trade since its possibly a hard trend day or a trading range day, which are not amenable to swinging.

A channel like trend usually has a second similar leg

When a trend that is moving practically in a channel, it will effectively act as one leg (and usually is on a larger timeframe). When such a trend breaks, there is a very good chance that the break is simply a pullback and the trend will resume into a second leg of comparable size.

b25 broke the AM down trend and terminated the first leg. A strong outside bull bar in a bear trend is a trading range and you should trade it like a trading range. If there is a strong breakout, you could trade a BP (b36) and if it fails, you could trade a fBO that should take you to the other end of the range.

At this point, you could take a BP short. A second attempt (b57) is effectively an A2 and therefore a high probability short.

Breakout tests as trend continuations

A breakout test (BT) is a pullback to -1t to +2t of your original entry. Essentially, this means that the traders are re-affirming the original trade and the price is likely to continue in the same direction. BTs are an important indicator or trend continuation. BT is one of the rare places where you can treat a doji bar as a valid signal bar.

A BT after a reversal bar is a form of 1st pullback trade and can lead to a large move. On a day that's essentially a large triangle day such as today, you can have BT on both sides as the price tries to consolidate.

BTs are a few places you can buy limit, since the stop is simply beyond the prior swing point. However, conservative traders can simply wait for the bar to form and then enter on a stop beyond the signal bar.

BTs are not limited to bars at swing points. Trend lines, ema (b31), and basically any barrier that the price breaks through can give a breakout test. 

Two legged W1P

The best W and W1P are off strong reversal bars. Sometimes, the reversal bar could be an outside bar as in b32, which is a possible trading range. The entry bar could be small (b33) and its low taken out (b34). Normally, this is not a W1P candidate. However, due to the extensive overshoot, there will certainly be a bullish pullback at least.

When a bar such as b32 forms the reversal bar, due to the overlap, there is a very good chance the entry bar will be taken out. Next, if you get a failed continuation signal (such as the failed A2 short at b38), then there is a good chance it will act as a 2 legged W1P. Note that when the W signal bar and entry bar are strong reversal and trend bars, the pullback should not go more than 1t below the W entry bar.

If the W reversal bar was weak because it was bearish or a doji or too large or not a deep overshoot, this is no longer a W1P but simply a trend termination into a trading range and you should look for breakouts and failed breakouts.

Trend reversals

Most trend reversals you see intra-day are likely to be Wedge reversals. Often there is an overshoot and a reversal bar on the third push and this makes the reversal very clear. However, for bullish trends, there may be no overshoot at all. Three pushes up by itself does not make a wedge. You need something else, such as a TCL overshoot, a reversal bar or a final flag (FF) as in b47 at the end of the third push to qualify it as a reversal.

The three pushes also need to be counted from trend breakout, therefore b5 does not count as a push. Once the FF triggers, you can look to short. If you do not wish to short the BWish FF, you should simply wait for an A2 short entry such as b62.

The rate of success for shaved or trend signal bars are high and you should taken those rather than dojis. For example, b65 is an ii, but its an L1 and also a doji so you are better off waiting for a bar like b67 which has higher probability.

Days with poor bars

Sometimes for days on end, you can have days with bars that are four ticks or less and many are often dojis. Days such as these are not very productive and every breakout only goes a point or two. There are a few ways to deal with these days.

The simplest option is to not trade such days or trade very few setups. If you get in early, for example the 1st reversal below b4, you could hold on till you see a clear sign of reversal at say bar 55 and ignore all the poor bar setups.

The second option is to take modest profits, say 4ticks for every entry. You should trade smaller size say half your normal size, since you are likely to get stopped out. You could add on the other half where your stop would normally be taken out. This way, you have a better chance of exiting with a modest profit.

The third option is to fade poor setups using limit orders on such days. For example, b13 was a poor setup and it had a poor entry bar. A limit trader could short the close or high of b14 with the plan of adding on some more shorts if it moves against the trade. If you choose to do this, keep the trend direction in mind and take only with trend trades (dont short after the b55 reversal for example.)

Trending Trading ranges

Trading ranges can break into trends from a BP but sometimes they break into higher trading ranges. Usually, there is one break back into a prior trading range during the day. Trending trading ranges are traded exactly like trading ranges. Once your get a breakout pullback, if the trend terminates for any reason (today, TTR b16 to b25) you should look for new breakouts or fBO trades.

Today, we got a breakout pullback back into the lower range at b58. A break into a prior range usually tests the other end of the range (b5 low). If you miss the initial BP or chose not to take it due to the BW price action, you could enter below the bo bar b63 as long as the bar is not too long (say under 2 points).

There were very few reliable trades today. The price action after the early move was poor consisting of 2 and 3 tick dojis and its usually a good idea not to trade them and simply wait for a breakout and then choose to enter a high probability trade.