Showing posts with label 1Rev. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 1Rev. Show all posts

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The ideal first reversal


The simplest to read kind of first reversal is a trend move from open consisting entirely of trend bars that penetrates a support such as HLC of prior day or ema (today was both C of prior and ema) and gives a reversal signal.

If the reversal signal is weak (for example, it has a large entry side tail or is a bar of the wrong color), it is likely to take out the low and try a second time.

Such a 1Rev is often the low of the day and will close near its high so its a good candidate for a day long swing. In practice, if you get a very sharp move (b31-35) that looks like an overshoot and gives a decent profit, its a good practice to take some or all off and wait for more price action.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Opening range: 1Rev vs 1PB vs fBO


It is important to know the definitions of 1PB, 1Rev and fBO to correctly trade the opening range:


  • 1PB is the first pullback after a strong or successful trend attempt
  • 1Rev is a strong reversal after a weak or moderate trend attempt 
  • fBO is a failure to create a trend breakout of the opening range

If we look at b1 today, its clearly a trading range bar. There is no trend yet. Some traders will buy the low of b1 hoping for an fBO. However, this is dangerous since b2 can be a large trend bar that continues the downward move.

b2 attempted to break into a bear trend and failed. At this point, we have a fBO. However, its not tradable since the signal bar is weak and we would be forced to buy mid-range. Note that this is not a 1Rev, since only trends can reverse and there are no reversals within a trading range.

b3 is a trend bar, but since it did not breach the trading range, its not a successful BO. b3 is not a 1PB since there is no trend and its a bar of the wrong color in any case. If b3 was very high and a bear bar, you would be selling near the high of the trading range and you could argue its a 1PB even though b2 was a weak breakout bar.

b4,5 again is an fBO but the signal bar is a weak overlapped doji and is not worth trading. If a trading range is at least 4 points and the other end is at least 2 points away, often the signal will work for about half of it (1 point in this case), but often its just a distraction because a clearer setup is usually just a couple of bars away.

b6,7 is an inside bar and a LH after a LH and LL, so a possible trend. However, it would be a very shallow 1 legged pullback after a weak reversal bar b5. You don't really want to sell near the low of a trading range unless its at least a 2L pb.

b9,10 is a W reversal and since we have a weak down trend, this can be labeled a 1Rev. Since the reversal was not near HLC of prior day, its not an OR; therefore it is labeled XOD (extreme of the day).