The bar b49 can be read in many ways. Its possibly an entry bar below b48, which was an A2 short second entry (with b45 as first). Its possibly a failed H2 with b44 as H1. In any case, its a trap bar that results in acceleration of the trend.
When a disproportionately large bar pops from nowhere as is the case with news related events, there is a very good chance it will turn into a spike and channel type of move. The exception is if it was a trend bar that triggered off a 2-legged pullback and has follow through.
Once the spike is determined, wait for a pullback and trade only in the direction of the channel. The channel (b58-69) will be in the same direction as the spike (b49) unless the pullback also had a large spike in the opposite direction.
Channels typically but not always consist of three pushes and will give a W termination (b70) and will test the begin of the channel (b75). They will then go to the mid-range of the channel (b81).
There is a good chance you missed out on the spike but the pullback and channel often go to a measured move of the spike.
Hi Cad,
ReplyDeleteWould you be willing to do a post dedicated to exiting the market? It seems like the few losing trades you have, the loss is always very minimal, and the trades you decide to swing have a healthy run. It would be helpful to know your methodology.
Thank you for your help!
Eumaeus, A fixed loss such as 6t should be sufficient if the bar is well formed. I'm still experimenting with exits and once I have something quantified, I will make a blog post out of it.
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